Model for Estimating Cancer Incidence at the Regional State Level in Colombia, 2002-2006

Authors

  • Ricardo Cendales Instituto Nacional de Cancerología
  • Constanza Pardo Instituto Nacional de Cancerología

Keywords:

Developing countries, data collection, registries, neoplasms, incidence, Colombia
Abstract Authors References How to Cite

Abstract

Objective: To describe the results of a methodology used to estimate the incidence of cancer cases in Colombia at the regional state level from 2002-2006, which takes into account the impact of information sources on final estimate results.
Methods: National cancer incidence was estimated upon the total number of cases reported at locations with in each regional state under the application of a generalized linear regression model, which assumes that the number of cases conforms to Poisson distribution and utilizes incidence mortality and causes, gender, and age group as predictive variables. Seven different models were adjusted, and information was validated on estimated cases in comparison with observed cases through sum of squared errors, average absolute error, and absolute maximum error.
Results: The most precise model included the data from the cities of Cali, Pasto and Bucaramanga; however, this model underestimates cancer incidence at the national level.
Conclusions: Application of the model based exclusively on information from Cali is recommended; due to the fact that the number of cases could be underestimated as a consequence of including information in model construct from other registries which have, as yet, unsolved thoroughness issues.

 

Author Biographies

Ricardo Cendales, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología

Grupo de Vigilancia Epidemiológica del Cáncer, Grupo de Radioterapia Oncológica, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología, Bogotá D. C., Colombia

Constanza Pardo, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología

Grupo de Vigilancia Epidemiológica del Cáncer, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología, Bogotá D. C., Colombia

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How to Cite

[1]
Cendales, R. and Pardo, C. 2012. Model for Estimating Cancer Incidence at the Regional State Level in Colombia, 2002-2006. Revista Colombiana de Cancerología. 16, 1 (Mar. 2012), 5–15.

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Published

2012-03-01

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 1 (2012)

Section

Research/original articles

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